DEAN GRAZIOSI: DEAN GRAZIOSI REVIEW – REAL ESTATE FEED BY DEAN GRAZIOSI

The recession has taken a heavy toll on the building industry.  States once reliant on residential and commercial construction have extremely high unemployment rates and many projects were halted while in progress.  The focus of the government’s housing campaign has been to clear the decks of existing inventory and have combined in an all out effort to keep financially troubled homeowners in their homes.

As a result, building firms have been unusually idle, as housing starts have dwindled to record lows.  In previously strong new construction states like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California, requests for building permits have been few and far between.

In November, new home construction rebounded from a six-month low.  Construction actually increased at an annual rate of 574,000 or 8.9% above October’s housing starts.  Even with the November progress, housing starts remained 12.4% below year-over-year comparisons of 655,000.

New construction was strongest in the northeast where housing starts were up 16.4%.  Housing starts rose 12.3% in the south, 3% in the Midwest and 1.9% in the west.  October had been surprisingly disappointing for builders as homeowners waited to see if the homebuyer tax credit legislation would be extend or modified.

Once the December 1^st cutoff was extended and the program expanded to include some existing homeowners, construction firms began to see some light at the end of the tunnel.  These firms are hoping that Congress will take note and broaden the 2010 homebuyer tax credit.  The 2009 bill was extended to cover homes closed before the end of June.

The November startups gave builders hope.  However, the industry remains mired in high unemployment.  The industry’s suppliers have also been affected and inventories are at alarmingly low volumes.  Prices for building lots and for land for new developments are favorable but most construction is not speculative.

In 2009, housing starts peaked in the summer with July setting the bar.  Normally, new starts are lower in the winter months.

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During the recession, credit markets and especially those dazzling home equity lines of credit were called, limited and not for sale.  The home-equity line of credit business was on hold.  There are signs that this credit tool may be opening the doors again.  The word is out that the consumer should beware.  Terms are very different than in the real estate heydays.

Millions of homeowners watched as their home equity lines were shut down.  However, as the market has stabilized, lenders are slowly getting back in the home equity game.  The volume of new home equity lines is still less than 50% of the real estate boom days, but the trend is encouraging. 

In the home equity golden days, the loans typically were offered one half point below prime.  Those days appear gone.  The new rates are prime plus one percent.  The floor on new home equity rates is 4%. 

To qualify, the homeowners must have a minimum 20% equity position in the residence.  Overall, the home equity line of credit is a far better source of emergency funds than a credit card. 

The lines of credit also come with revised standards.  The days of 100% financing are gone.  Most lenders now want to keep total credit exposure at 80% of value or less on residential lines.  There are no assurances that the housing market has hit bottom and lenders are cautious.  Credit reviews are strict and must be fully documented and substantiated.

As the credit line rates are likely to rise, homeowners should only view the line of credit as a source of emergency funding.  Right now a $75,000 home equity loan would cost about $344 per month.  If rates increase, that on may soon cost about $469 per month.  Still, in certain situations, the line may be the way to go.

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The mortgage industry has undergone regulatory reform.  The recession took a heavy toll on the creative lending practices.  Subprime lending and exotic subprime mortgage products are a thing of the past.  Here are some of the reforms that have been implemented by the Mortgage Reform Act of 2009 and subsequent legislation.

·                     More documentation – The low documentation loans and no documentation loans that characterized the subprime lending practices are no longer permissible.  Today’s mortgage applications require more paperwork than ever before.  Lenders must substantiate and verify all income and debt.  Borrowers should expect to provide lenders with pay stubs, bank statements, retirement account information, income tax returns and brokerage accounts and debt statements.

·                     Refinancing delays – The banking industry, like many recession industries, has undergone massive layoffs.  Requests for refinancing can now take up to 60 days to process.

·                     New appraisal practices – The new Home Valuation Code of Conduct has overhauled the appraisal profession.  The new code discourages contact between real estate sales people and appraisers.  Only lenders can work directly with appraisers and even that practice is diminishing.  Most appraisers are retained through the use of an independent third party.  These changes have led to some confusion but Realtors have asked Congress to suspend the new rules.

·                     Credit evaluation – In the past a Fair Isaac Company (FICO) score of 740 would entitle the borrower to lower interest rates.  The new favored credit standard is 760.  If your credit score is 760, you may want to consider refinancing.

·                     More Truth in Lending – As of July 2009, lenders must disclose earlier in the application process how much a loan will actually cost.  The purpose of this early disclosure is to allow the prospective borrower more time to consider the mortgage offer.  After the borrower receives the new disclosure, the borrower has even days to confirm the selection.

·                     Longer Closing Dates – It now takes more time to close mortgages.  Part of delay is caused by the extended decision time and part of the delay is caused by the simple fact that foreclosure departments are busier than lending departments.

The most aggressive mortgage lender is now the FHA.  More than 60% of mortgages issued by the FHA in 2009 have been issued to first time homebuyers.  The Federal Housing Administration has lowered their down payment requirement to 3.5% and has increased the acceptable debt to income ratios.

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